29 Aug · 16:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1559
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1545
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (77)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H13-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.