29 Aug · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1559
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1548
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (77)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H19-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.