29 Aug · 20:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1489
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Matus
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1441
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 71% (78)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H20-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.