29 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1515
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1494
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Jancak covers set handicap as underdog 71% (58)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H10-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.