29 Aug · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1545
FormWWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Moravec
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1539
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 64% (64)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H27-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.