29 Aug · 20:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1627
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Prochazka
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1687
FormLWLLW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brozek🌟Prochazka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (77)
Fair odds · Prochazka
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H13-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-5)