29 Aug · 17:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1737
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vesecky
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1687
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Prochazka🌟Prochazka covers set handicap as underdog 79% (43)
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.