29 Aug · 20:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1584
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Szymanski
MS
🇨🇿Mateusz Szymanski
ELO 1585
FormWLWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Szymanski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H18-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.