29 Aug · 21:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DB
🇨🇿Damian Bucko
ELO 1587
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Zapala
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1590
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Zapala
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H43-46
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.