29 Aug · 23:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1580
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Guzy
KG
🇨🇿Karol Guzy
ELO 1643
FormWWWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Guzy
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H64-42
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (64-42)