30 Aug · 12:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1489
FormWWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stefek
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1427
FormLWLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 70% (79)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H10-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-5)