30 Aug · 14:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1470
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zahradka
JK
🇨🇿Jonas Kulveit
ELO 1425
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kulveit🌟Kulveit covers set handicap as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H5-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.