30 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1497
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Holik
SH
🇨🇿Simon Holik
ELO 1517
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dohnal🌟Holik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (26)
Fair odds · Holik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.