30 Aug · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1475
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Holik
SH
🇨🇿Simon Holik
ELO 1517
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
🌟Holik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (26)
Fair odds · Holik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H14-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.