30 Aug · 09:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1738
FormWWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Moravec
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1622
FormLWWWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+116
H2H34-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+116)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-19)