30 Aug · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1580
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Melichar
DT
🇨🇿Dominik Tichy
ELO 1472
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tichy🌟Tichy covers set handicap as underdog 73% (49)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+108
H2H4-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+108)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)