30 Aug · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1427
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1468
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 70% (79)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H30-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.