30 Aug · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PK
🇨🇿Pasek Kamil
ELO 1546
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Arkadiusz
WA
🇨🇿Wiekiera Arkadiusz
ELO 1559
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Arkadiusz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H10-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.