30 Aug · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WA
🇨🇿Wiekiera Arkadiusz
ELO 1559
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Arkadiusz
LB
🇨🇿Lukasz Buklat
ELO 1540
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Arkadiusz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 1.99· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H45-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.