30 Aug · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1433
FormWLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Chmelicek
RH
🇨🇿Radek Hruby
ELO 1361
FormLWLLW
56%
44%
🌟Chmelicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (38)
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H11-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-1)