30 Aug · 15:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FT
🇨🇿Filip Theodor
ELO 1383
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ogrocki
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1429
FormLLWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Theodor🌟Theodor covers set handicap as underdog 65% (23)
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.