30 Aug · 17:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1494
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Jancak
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1427
FormLWLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 70% (79)
Fair odds · Jancak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H12-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-11)