30 Aug · 20:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BJ
🇨🇿Bartolomej Jonas
ELO 1420
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dolezal
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1434
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
🌟Jonas goes over total as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Dolezal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.