30 Aug · 18:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1433
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chmelicek
PP
🇨🇿Petr Pesout
ELO 1368
FormLWWLL
55%
45%
🌟Chmelicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (38)
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H8-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)