30 Aug · 22:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1434
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oleksik
JO
🇨🇿Jan Oleksik
ELO 1447
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Oleksik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.