30 Aug · 16:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1445
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1462
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 70% (79)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H30-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.