30 Aug · 20:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1461
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zeman
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1497
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Reska🌟Zeman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (49)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H11-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.