30 Aug · 20:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇨🇿Marek Kulisek
ELO 1529
FormLWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1633
FormWLLWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+104
H2H102-87
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+104)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (102-87)