30 Aug · 22:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1506
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vidourek
LV
🇨🇿Ladislav Vosyka
ELO 1489
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Vidourek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H11-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.