30 Aug · 19:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1642
FormWLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Stusek
FS
🇨🇿Filip Strejc
ELO 1566
FormLWLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strejc🌟Stusek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (94)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H81-71
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (81-71)