30 Aug · 19:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1597
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Galus
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1576
FormLLWWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Galus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H23-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.