30 Aug · 23:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1561
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1633
FormWLLWW
44%
56%
🌟Sulc covers set handicap as underdog 64% (125)
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H18-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-4)