30 Aug · 21:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1625
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Rek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1561
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
🌟Sulc covers set handicap as underdog 64% (125)
Fair odds · Rek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H31-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-27)