30 Aug · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1613
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lysakowski
JM
🇨🇿Jan Masternak
ELO 1561
FormWWLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H52-68
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.