30 Aug · 20:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1600
FormWLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Galus
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1502
FormLLLLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Galus
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+98
H2H44-39
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+98)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (44-39)