31 Aug · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1545
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pawlik
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1511
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanak🌟Kanak covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.