31 Aug · 12:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1628
FormLWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Skvrna
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1529
FormLLLLW
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (126)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+99
H2H17-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+99)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-12)