31 Aug · 14:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1558
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Holub
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1526
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.