31 Aug · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1558
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Holub
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1531
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
🌟Chvatal goes over total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H8-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.