31 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1500
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1521
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cizek🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (78)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H10-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.