31 Aug · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1529
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1521
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 64% (69)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H27-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.