31 Aug · 13:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1521
FormWLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1628
FormLWLWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (126)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+107
H2H55-34
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+107)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (55-34)