31 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1545
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pawlik
JP
🇨🇿Jan Przybyla
ELO 1523
FormLWWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Przybyla🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (52)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H7-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.