31 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1548
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sulc
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1563
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H13-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.