31 Aug · 09:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1518
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lysakowski
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1616
FormWLWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+98
H2H64-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+98)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (64-40)