31 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1654
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Stepien
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1584
FormLWWWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H38-30
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-30)