31 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1593
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Radlo
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1579
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Radlo
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.02· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~81 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H28-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.