31 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1551
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gola
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1514
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Gola
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H126-79
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.