31 Aug · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1645
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stepien
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1620
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H129-107
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.