31 Aug · 16:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Martin Kucera
ELO 1584
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1608
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 29% · 3.44· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.